Pre "player prices" musings


Plans are nothing; planning is everything. A suspension, injury or loss of form can quickly change the best laid plans but it’s also important to remember that the absence of some sort of plan in FPL sets you back from the hardened season players. Plenty of good advice can be found in the Machine, search diligently and you will find good sources of information. Inversely we are also faced with the fact that there is an ever increasing level of noise with perhaps at times an overload of information. Basing your decisions on short-term thinking without any due diligence on the sources can lead to transfer hit after transfer hit.

So here is my plan, feel free to use, adjust, critique but above all remember it’s your team, no one else’s.

In a similar fashion outlined by Paul @SkyPlayerinFPL from the #30in30 Ep.2 podcast from #PlanetFPL I am looking to cut down the variables associated with team selections. I am looking to employ a “Rule of 3” approach.

So my “Rule of 3” variables will be centered on:
  • Captain Pick’s
  • Team formation
  • Fixtures (form is an underlying stat at the start of the season)

Other variables like hits, weekly transfers, rotational duo’s, penalty takers, free-kick specialists, corner kicks etc will be taken into account but in the background.

Although the Captains Pick is probably the single most important variable in terms of OR success, this is largely due to form, EPL Manager Selections and needs to be decided on a week-to-week basis. I will be developing a plan for each calendar month accompanied by a thread and there I will divulge my Captain Pick’s after the weekly press conferences.

Team Formation, this year I am planning to start with £2.5m in the bank (ITB), why?

In previous years where I started with £0 – 0.5m ITB, the fact is that you then need to downgrade to upgrade which can therefore take 2 moves instead of one and if you’re trying to avoid hits then it can be 2 weeks instead of 1.

I am also going with the popular 3-4-3 with 4-4-2 also in mind based on the performance of FPL defenders last year. So ultimately my target formation is 4-4-3 (sic), base of 12 with a “Set & Forget” choice of keepers plus 2 x Dead Man Sitting (DMS) options i.e. 5th Mid and 5th Def coming from the £4.0 – 4.5M range.

So with an ITB of £2.5M, 2nd Keeper of £4.5M and my DMS of £4.5M + £4.0M this leaves me with £84.5M for my 4-4-3 (sic) formation.

Initially I am distributing the 4-4-3 (sic) funds as follows – GK = £5.0M, DEF = £21.5M, MID = £32.0M, & FOR = £26.0M

Fixtures, this particular topic is very subjective and there are plenty of websites including the @OfficalFPL site which publish their own interpretations of the Fixture Difficult Rating (FDR). I rated the Top6, Mid Table and Bottom 6 against each other home and away and only awarded Green to the TOP 6 at home to the Bottom 6, and Black to the Bottom 6 Away to the Top 6. My matrix has 5 colour codes but is similar in outcome to that of e.g. @FPL_Guidance.



So prior to the release of the Player Prices I will be choosing for my 4-4-3 (sic) from the following:
  • 3 x LIV
  • 2 x MCI
  • 6 from ARS, BOU, CHE, EVE, MUN, TOT, WHU, WOL

One exception to the above is I expect VAR to cause havoc at the start of this season and for that reason I am going to slide in Milivojevic for the opening run of games.

If I can find my DMS’s from the above teams all the better and my 2nd GK for now looks to be going to Dean Henderson depending on his price of course.

Places to Go: Places I regularly go to for information and thank you to those who put in all the effort throughout the season. Guardian Football (@guardian_sport) for the team squads, James & Suj (@PlanetFPLPod) for the wit and football knowledge, PremierFantasyTools (@PremierFPLTools) for the flexible analysis and Fantasy Football Scout (@FFSCout) to make sure my thinking is devoid of lunacy.

Once the player prices are announced I will select an initial squad, publish it, park it hopefully, keep an eye on pre-season games and tweak it prior to the season kick-off on August 09th.

#RogueAgainstTheMachine @FplRogue

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