Áróra

‘Northern lights filled our skies
Empy nights synchronized’

The screech of the tyres as our plane touches down on the runway in Reykjavik opens the floodgates of memories of the Thunderclap in Euro 2016. On my way to Húsafell for a welcome 4-day break from the rigors of a hectic workload in September after the habitual Summer lull I look up the origins of the Thunderclap in Wikipedia.

Did you know?

Some believed the chant was first used by fans of Scottish club Motherwell F.C., while others suggest it had been performed by fans of the French club Lens more than two decades prior. Fans of the Greek side PAOK have also chanted "PAOK" on the clap of hands since the mid 90's. The version by Motherwell fans was passed on to the Icelandic fans when Motherwell faced Icelandic team Stjarnan in a Europa League game in 2014.^[1]

For FPL Rogue the ITB Strategy has run its course, time for reflection and more importantly decision time for the next phase of the FPL 2019/20 season. Currently debating furiously (with me, myself & Irene) on two possible tactics to implement. All this internal cerebral turmoil and avoidance of emotional reactions to blanking captains and budget forwards hammers home the need for strategies in FPL.

On the flip side, an interesting thread from @JoremSigurd on the fallacy of FPL strategies on Twitter which culminated in the following sentence “Indeed, FPL isn’t a strategy game in any useful sense of the word.” Caught my attention.

The beauty of democracy is that we are allowed to have different views or opinions. In my case, as a notorious bad starter, the fact that I implemented a starting strategy this year has rewarded me immensely (at the time of writing my OR = 511,232) and I now feel I need to adapt a new strategy to get me to my next goal of 100k by Xmas.

More importantly, I have the feeling of hanging around the 500k for far too long. Either I will get a ticket for loitering or I need something different to push on. Also, the small matter of surviving in my own ML #fplNoBackdoor is preying on my mind.

So, where do we go from here? (Is it down to the lake I fear?)

But first…

Rearview Mirror

⚽ Defensive Maligns ⚽

So, in Purple Haze, I mentioned the obvious FPL assets that were hurting me i.e. TAA & Digne can easily be brought in but it would seem more like a sideward move “Crab Move” for VVD & Coleman. One golden rule I have learnt over 12 seasons of playing FPL is that patience is a virtue (or golden). The Evertonian ship was starting to wobble too much for my liking so I held off on that move. Having made my change for Abraham in place of Jota, I held my transfers with a view to making 2 or possibly 3 moves for GW8.

⚽ Death Card ⚽

The FPL equivalent of the Death Card has undoubtably got to be a TC move on a player who subsequently gets benched, thank you Pep, and comes on for 57 mins. Yes Ladies & Gentlemen, I got sucked into the Norwich Injury crisis and the Delia’s baking of the gingerbread men. Expecting a huge haul when I knew, I KNEW, they had a mid-week CL game backfired spectacularly.

Ironically, I had earmarked the City v Watford game awhile back as the game to play my TC. Jesus wept as they say.

But this is FPL, and strangely I achieved a green arrow in the week that my TC choice backfired and a red arrow the week my VC fired (we won’t go there on that one, enough FPL civil wars on Twitter over that struck of luck or genius!).  

Strategies

⚽ The Importance of Being (The) Earnest ⚽

FPL is a game that is volatile, uncertain at the best of times but also equally complex and extremely abstruse. Therefore we (I) should ask ourselves what is the best strategy to counter this weekly volatility of the Premier League. Should we, as FPL Siguard, suggests just concentrate our efforts on a weekly basis on picking those players that we think in any given gameweek will amass the most points. If we have more FT’s at our disposal or threw caution to the wind by taking a high level of hits then yes but IMO that is not sustainable over a 38-week game of chance.

What should an FPL strategy look like then under an umbrella of weekly football turbulence?

Modern day strategists are beginning to rely heavily on factors within their control in order to reduce the need to predict. After all, who has a crystal ball at their disposal?

Data analytics, artificial intelligence and machine learning is starting to take a stronger foothold in the way FPL Players approach the game e.g. xG, xGA etc. BTW, @2010davidjsmull is a master of FPL statistics, seek him out on the weekly Renegades podcast.

With all this data potentially blurring our judgement but also enhancing it to a certain degree is it therefore imperative that we compliment our use of supplied data with some intuitive judgements?

Other than our own judgements which let’s face it are extremely biased how else might we benefit from other people’s judgements. FPL on Twitter is awash with opinions, some very good, some poor, some bizarre and some downright shocking. Therefore, as mentioned in Killing Moon seek out and get invited into group chats where people with different views and backgrounds but a certain level of skill in FPL will provide you with constructive feedback.

⚽ Asymmetric Hazards ⚽

A large part of my new strategy is based on countering the various FPL Asymmetric Hazards of the game and how to prepare for an unforeseen hazed. Aspects of the game that come out of nowhere and follow no rule books.

In hindsight everything is clear. Here is an example to highlight that aspect. GW7, Everton at home to Sheffield United seemed a dead cert for a CS. Inevitably Everton were in a poor run of form but I assumed that they would get their act together against one of the newly promoted teams. I kept Coleman, for one last hurray, and moved Schneiderlin off my bench in place of Lundstram. If I had kept a clear head, I should have left Lundstram to balance my use of Coleman.  In my haste I placed Mings in position 1 on my bench and Lundstram (who racked up 12 points) in second place on my bench.  

So, my logic is based on covering my bases without endless time wasted on trying to counter a variety of unpredictable risks to my FPL squad.

• Unprotected zones. -> Example: No Premium Defenders or Forwards
• Vulnerability ->Example: No KDB or Pukki
• Underestimation ->Example: No point in investing in Sheffield as they are relegation favourites (Lundstram people?)

Adopting a hazard-agnostic approach is key and a means to reducing potential adverse OR rank declines. That means working to reduce potential unfavorable outcomes.

⚽ Crab Moves ⚽

So, taking a look at my current squad (pre GW7) I was very much content and the only 2 transfers I would have implemented were 2 out of 3 of my bench assets. Two FT’s for 2 further bench fodder assets seemed like a “crab move” to me in FPL and it would not have protected my squad against any potential “asymmetric hazards” that could ignite in FPL in the coming weeks.

⚽ “2 plus 1” Strategy ⚽

A couple of perspicacious risks and potential outcomes that could occur over the coming weeks compelled me to re-think my strategy and put in place my “2 plus 1” strategy,

However, due to a tight ML dual I will refrain from divulging this strategy but will update it after the GW8 deadline. [Update below]

I alluded earlier to the need for pushing on and if you look at the work of @FPLHAL and his work on statistics he posted the following graph after GW6. This represents a low standard deviation and I would expect a high standard deviation curve by Christmas. Therefore, the chances of making larger leaps in OR are greater now due to the fact that the steepness of the curve is greater now thus allowing for greater movement both positively and negatively.

[GW8 Deadline Update] So, to make that push up the ranks I felt I need to change the structure of my squad. I decided to take a punt on the next phase of FPL belonging to the Premium Strikers and I wanted two in Aubameyang & Vardy. To implement this, I needed a cheap Forward to complement the above two & Greenwood although not getting the minutes people hoped is cheap so up front its “2 plus 1”.  

I also wanted to ensure my bench had at least 2 playing regular and one punt “2 plus 1”.

To keep my strong MID of Salah, Sterling & KDB I therefore needed to downgrade my DEF. Swapping TAA for VVD and again making sure I had 2 regular starters plus one OOP i.e. Söyüncü & Tomori plus Lundstram (who up to now was predominately a bench warmer in my squad) again “2 plus 1”.  

The biggest risk to reshaping my squad lies in the fact that I already owned Pukki & Abraham, two players with high ownership and the latter has a good run of games coming up. In choosing Vardy I also allow, myself to move Vardy to Abraham providing me with £1m ITB to upgrade my DEF if needed. Again “2 plus 1” million.

Finally, the shape of my squad gives me flexibility for 4-4-2, 3-5-2 or 4-4-3

Playing my WC allowed me to reshape my squad into this for the coming weeks.

⚽ Biochips Predictions ⚽

Speaking of predications, I am adding a section each month and asking 3 guest FPL players on Twitter to represent Rogue’s 3 Biochips i.e. Gunner, Bagman & Helm to provide their predictions for the following categories:

•   Monthly Maestro (Top Scorer over calendar month)
•   Cech Mate (Top Keeper)
•   Bandwagon (Next Pukki)
•   Tom Daly (Biggest flop)

First a recap of the results from our Sept Biochips predictions and fair play to @FChieftan for getting his hands in the best result in all 4 categories. Thank you to all 3 for contributing @FPL_Bully @FChieftan & @ohheyystranger

Leaderboard
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Normalised)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@FChieftan	19 Pts	Sept
Cech Mate	@FPL_Bully & @FChieftan	12 Pts	Sept
Bandwagon	@FChieftan	1,856,499 Net Transfers	Sept
Tom Daly	@FPL_Bully, @FChieftan & @ohheyystranger	16 Pts	Sept

So for October we have @johnsmithspurs , @FPLLens and @or_fail with their deliberations.

BioChip	FPL Player	Monthly Maestro	Cech Mate	Bandwagon	Tom Daly
Gunner	@johnsmithspurs	Son	Ederson	Abraham	Barnes
Bagman	@FPLLens	KDB	Fabianski	Abraham	Aguero
Helm	@or_fail	Sterling	Ederson	Yarmolenko	Son

Combining Fixtures with Form and a positional change its Son for @johnsmithspurs “Son has 3 great fixtures; he is playing OOP and is looking very sharp”. Form is the deciding factor for @FPLLens “KDB seems to be the creative hub for a ridiculously prolific team” and who can argue with the form of KDB at present?  The attacking machine of Manchester City sways @or_fail towards another City asset, “It is impossible for me to look past Man City assets for this month and it’s hard to characterize Moulineux as a fortress this year.” Factual and fortright words from our man in Denmark which culminating in his own personal Jesus “Sterling is my man, my Monthly Maestro.”

The two home games at the Ethiad seal it for @johnsmithspurs “City seem most likely to CS with that fixture run” An old stalwart between the posts over the last few seasons in FPL makes @FPLLens opt for Fabianski “Fabianski- save potential comes thru even in tough matchups. Could lead to bonus if he keeps a clean v BOU”. Very little doubt on this one from @or_fail “And as a goalkeeper Edison will have some very quiet 270 minutes in October.” Wildcards, stick or twist as wella s the ITB in October

“Tammy in form and amazing fixtures, still underpriced imo so rises will be huge if he bangs this weekend. (i.e. GW7)” can’t argue with the man of the moment and FPL’s favourite attacker at present. “Tammy. On fire and everyone is buying”. Interesting thoughts in this category from @or_fail “I do however foresee that we will see the most activity in the midfield, as I believe many will keep on off-loading Salah to get bigger guns up front and they look for replacements. I'm waiting for the FPL community to give us a great name for my Bandwagon of October; Yarmolenko”

Going against the grain is a bold move but that is what we have in Aguero. “People disappointed he got minimal returns in the 8-0 thrashing. He doesn't have a great history v Everton. Jesus could be back as soon as this week (i.e. GW7).”  and brave rave words from @FPLLens. “Barnes not scoring home to Norwich is a concern. In general, I just don’t think Burnley create enough to sustain his goals” somewhat echoing what many Managers out there are saying about a once fueled England call-up brigade among the community, an honest and forthright choice from @johnsmithspurs. Predicting a flop from the club you support takes guts and courage but that’s exactly what @or_fail opted for. “For me there are two candidates here really. Pepe from Arsenal. Only real action and return is when he gets handed a penalty but when seeing him play, he doesn’t really connect with the rest of the Arsenal team. I swallowed my pride and am going with a prediction that I hope is wrong oh so wrong.” An embarrassing CL game, Brighton parking the bus and a long voyage home from international duty. “I predict Son to flop (Oh I hope I’m wrong)”.

⚽ Next Update ⚽

Back prior to November games so until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the Community and remember rule no.1 “Play your own game”.

#RogueAgainstTheMachine @FplRogue

Credits: @JoremSigurd @2010davidjsmull @FPLHAL @johnsmithspurs @FPLLens @or_fail @FPL_Bully @FChieftan @ohheyystranger