Banksy

“A lot of people never use their initiative because no-one told them to.”

The year is 2000. Jan 22^nd to be precise. The crowd surges forward for every new arriving bus which is momentarily suffocating. I have her by the hand. Our fingers interlocked tightly. We hop on the first bus we can manage to get to, not knowing where the final destination lies. We’re still buzzing at the atmosphere from the Curva Sud.

A local couple overhear us speaking in English. They help us navigate the bus map & suggest the best stop in order to get to our hotel. Along the way we chat and Marco & I instantly bond, we both love football.

The stop is also theirs; they cordially suggest going for a beer with their friends. The night was full of laughter, friendly faces, Italian bars, a local restaurant hidden from the hordes of tourists to Rome, scooter rides through the narrow streets of Rome to view some street art.

My girlfriend, now Mrs Rogue & I had visited the typical tourist sites in Rome earlier in the day but she expressed a desire to do something that allows us to mix with the locals. I duly took the opportunity to purchase 2 tickets for AS Roma V Piacenza, which they won 2-1 and Totti scored the winning goal.

This is what football should be about, great spirits, fun, merriment & excitement with people I never met before and will never meet again. This was also my first time encountering a serious street artist and it’s one of those life memories which is burnt into the hard drive of your brain.

In a similar vein FPL should also be all about excitement and merriment but it’s usually after the half way mark when people start to despair. So, taking Banksy’s words above on initiative and many goals still to reach I am putting some different approaches in place but before I divulge, first the regular;

Rearview Mirror

For FPL Rogue the “Sound and Vision” Strategy outlined in Starman helped me navigate from an OR of 99,611 to 73,722 in GW18, to 25,735 in GW19, to 19,186 in GW20 but back to 35,462 in GW21. Overall a green arrow for the period GW18 to 21, for any new readers you will need to refer to the “Planet Earth is Blue” section of Starman to comprehend my thinking on red/green arrows over phases.

The use of unexpected weapons is the underlying theme in the “Football Terrorist” piece by Banksy and some unexpected weapons from my Starman strategy helped me rise over that period. From a near starting 11 in GW18 while retaining my Liverpool assets, 245 points over the festive 4 GW’s, TAA;s supernatural GW19 and KDB’s masterclass in GW20.

⚽ Wildcard or not ⚽

Going into GW21 on the back of four green arrows and having successfully navigated the Christmas rotation period (or so I thought!!) I decided to plot out my transfers for GW22, 23 & 24. Already an owner of TAA & Mané so with the DGW24 on the horizon it was time to start adding Salah, Rashford, Baldock, and an Everton asset. Baldock was added, Rashford was discounted due to the inconsistency of the current United performances but to add Salah and that Everton asset (Sidibe, Baines or Holgate) I was missing the ubiquitous £0.1m. Therefore, I had to take a hit in GW21 or else play my wildcard.

Five transfers are about the minimum required to warrant utilizing the wildcard and this was exactly five but in the back of my mind I refrained due to the habitual fixture pile up as a result of the cup competitions.

Hit it was then, coupled with a Captain Blank and this dealt me a blow in GW21 but I’m confident that over the period 21 to 24 and having brought in Gomez alongside TAA that the shoring up of the Liverpool defence will reap rewards over this period. Gomez will then rotate with Salah after I squeeze the last out of Sterling in GW22 & GW23 before shipping in GW24.

Strategies

What is it with the modern keeper? By what, I refer to the lack of longevity with one club? Is it the contractual merry-go-round driven (selfishly) by the football agents in today’s game or has the spotlight shifted in the modern game from goalkeeping exploits to the egotistical centre forwards? Growing up the likes of Jennings, Shilton, Stepney, Clemence and Southall were synonymous with one club. Whereas Jennings, Stepney, Clemence & Southall all racked up 430+ appearances for a single club, Shilton and Banks (pictured and before my time) broke the mould of the sole club success and the latter’s greatest achievements attributed to country over club. That save anyone!

I personally struggle to find a keeper in today’s PL that I can slot into the same mould as the greats mentioned above. My motivations for writing about goalkeepers are down to the fact that this is the next area that I need to concentrate on my FPL squad if I wish to get into my next target bracket i.e. 10k.

Hence, some deliberations over my reasoning for a new keeper for the 2^nd half of the season and some useful tools. Is anyone in the same boat?

⚽ The Scorpion ⚽

I took a look at my keepers’ options to date this season and here are some findings that many out there will surely relate to very closely.

So, I started the season with a Premium GK (Ederson) on a “set & forget” strategy. This strategy served me well, with an average 4.33 points per match (PPM) and on 4 occasions more than 6 PPM. FYI, I always approach each GW selection looking to achieve 6 points per player in order to achieve the 60+ pts per GW. Laporte’s injury severely curtailed the clean sheets at City so I opted for “a rotation” strategy between Pope and Ryan.

Both Pope & Ryan achieved 6 PPM on 2 occasions each and only Pope achieved the same PPM average as Ederson but if I had chosen either Pope or Ryan as a “set & forget” keeper their average PPM would have been lower.

Plotting my GK points per GW over the course of the season to date portrays a drop in points for this position in the latter 10 weeks in comparison to the initial 11 week of the season.

I therefore needed more bite or a sting in the tail from the man between the posts.

On reviewing this squad position, I came across an excellent analysis of the points distribution for goalkeepers in FPL by @FplJeb.  Below is just a sample of his particular analysis and if you go to his profile on Twitter and click on his pinned Tweet you will find a link to a Tableau Chart which is interactive and allows you to change filters as needed. Check it out, worth a look if your thoughts lie with changing your keeper.

Over the coming weeks and with my hit in GW21 it allows me to sit back and assess all the data to arrive at a solid decision that will add points to this somewhat overlooked position. Well that’s the plan.

Did you know?

Not many football clubs can claim to have had an internationally renowned graffiti artist i.e. Banksy serve as goalkeeper. Starting off as kickabouts involving a group of youngsters in the St Pauls district of Bristol and later at Baptist Mills School in Easton in the late 1980s, Easton Cowboys was formally established when players decided to join a local league in 1992. He went on tour with them to Mexico in 2001 and painted a number of murals in the community. Below is probably one of the only photos ever taken of Banksy.

⚽ Biochips Predictions ⚽

I add a section each month and ask 3 guest FPL players on Twitter to represent Rogue’s 3 Biochips i.e. Gunner, Bagman & Helm to provide their predictions for the following categories:

•      Monthly Maestro (Top Scorer over calendar month/specific period)
•      Cech Mate (Top Keeper)
•    Bandwagon (Next Pukki)
•     Tom Daly (Biggest flop)

First a recap of the results from our Festive Period December Biochips predictions & thank you to all 3 for contributing @RenegadesFpl, @2010davidjsmul and Kirk’s

December
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Adjusted)	Month
Monthly Maestro	Kirk’s	18 Pts	Xmas
Cech Mate	Kirk’s	11 Pts	Xmas
Bandwagon	@RenegadesFpl	245,769 Net Transfers	Xmas
Tom Daly	@RenegadesFpl*	1 Pt	Xmas

*Although Kirk’s recoded a -1pt “The Rules Committee” decided that it was not appropriate to reward red cards and the top spot in the Tom Daly Prediction was deemed to be won by 2^nd place. 

Leaderboard
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Normalised)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@FPL_RubberDucky	27 Pts	Nov
Cech Mate	@Oldirish007, @DhillonAjit @FPL_RubberDucky	16 Pts	Nov
Bandwagon	@FChieftan	1,856,499 Net Transfers	Sept
Tom Daly	@RenegadesFpl	1 Pt	Xmas

So, for the January period (GW22-GW24) we have representation from Ireland, Scotland and Canada so thanks to @FplUncorked, @allorinFPL and @FantasianPL with their deliberations.

BioChip	FPL Player	Monthly Maestro	Cech Mate	Bandwagon	Tom Daly
Gunner	@FplUncorked	Mané	Fabianski	DCL	Ali
Bagman	@allorinFPL	Vardy	Schmeichel	DCL	Baldock
Helm	@FantasianFPL	Firmino	Dubravka	Fabianski	Son

Not surprising to see all three opt for players from the top 2 teams in the PL in our Monthly Maestro picks with @FplUncorked naturally picking his beloved Liverpool. “Mané will likely start each of Liverpool's 4 games over GW22-24”. He is the third highest scoring player in the game, the 2nd highest scoring form player and has an immaculate injury and recovery record.” Ignoring the extra fixture is @allorinFPL but he has his reasons,  “Okay, I know everyone will be looking at Liverpool for that DGW, but I also think (despite current form) that it’s a tougher run of 4 games than they’d like Spurs (a), ManU (h), Wolves (a) and West Ham (a).” What enticed him away from the Liverpool attacking force and onto Vardy? “His calf problem seems slight, he’s got a nice break until next weekend, and crucially, a run of fixtures which is Sou (h), Bur (a) and West Ham (h). So two home fixtures, and an away fixture against arguably the league’s least in-form team.” @FantasianPL goes in a different direction. “Liverpool seem like the obvious choice with an extra game. Any of the 6 of them would be worth picking and I went with Firmino because he is underperforming his xG and to shed some light on alternative LIV choices.”

The Cech Mate category sees @FplUncorked go with the forgotten man from last year but the man of the moment at present. ”Fabianski has by far and away the highest PPG of any goalkeeper who has played over 5 matches. Save points have traditionally been his bread and butter and plenty should come during his DGW v league leaders Leicester and Liverpool. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a clean sheet v Sheffield United or Everton either, especially under Moyes' new regime.” @allorinFPL again sticks with the Brendan Rodgers revolution and Schmeichel “When I look across the keepers / fixtures, Leicester seem to have the best of the next 3 weeks. Will Allison really keep clean sheets against Spurs, Man U and Wolves? And *someone* has to stop the Ings train, right? I’m betting on Leicester. 😊 “A brave choice from @FantasianPL in Dubravka “NEW have some difficult fixtures, but also have a decent defence. There is a chance at some CS points, but also may get some saves.”

The last time we had some consensus on the Bandwagon pick was Abraham back in October. This time it’s another striker in the shape of Dominic Calvert-Lewin chosen by both @FplUncorked “DCL has form to match his fixtures, allied with a new manager bounce. The Englishman has become a 90-minute man over the just Christmas period and that's a sure sign of having the trust of the management team. His next 5 fixtures are all winnable so FPL managers with a medium-term view are likely to jump aboard, especially those trying to raise funds to help purchase the likes of Salah or Robertson.” & @allorinFPL “Incredibly low ownership, coupled with a great run of fixtures and a new manager bounce which seems to have set the team up to DCL’s benefit. Watch him score against Brighton and West Ham, and watch his ownership soar.” It’s unusual to pick a goalkeeper but that’s what we got from @FantasianPL “Fabianski is back and is 4.9£. While still a bit pricy, some popular keepers are out (Heaton) or struggling (Pope) and the allure of all the saves in the DGW may make Fabianski a popular pick.”

Now for the fun pick with Tom Daly which this month does not bode well for Spurs fans! @FplUncorked goes with Ali “Dele, like most players, has scored more FPL points at home than away. He has 2 games at home in his next 3. Liverpool is a likely blank and I'm gambling on a similar outcome v Norwich. His away fixture is vs a rejuvenated Watford who have conceded just once in their last 4 home games.”  @allorinFPL takes the intention of this category and puts it eloquently into words, “Interesting category this: I feel to “play fair” you have to choose someone who is well selected, will play, and who is also ‘in form’. (E.g. not Greenwood.) So I’m going for Baldock. next up is West Ham, with Moyes keen to continue his bounce and Fabianski back to give confidence at the back. Then it’s away to Arsenal, and Arteta will be targeting exactly this sort of game to continue their revival. Finally, Sheffield United welcome Man City at home. I think all those new Baldock owners will be very disappointed over the next 3 game weeks.” Son has the misfortune of getting picked in consecutive months for this category with @FantasianPL backing the south Korean this time around. “This is a bold pick. Mostly it is a comment on spurs and their inconsistency and less about son himself. I worry the hype may result in people dishing out money that could be better spent elsewhere.”

⚽ Next Update ⚽

Back prior to the February GW’s of 26,27 and 28 so until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the Community and remember rule no.1 “Play your own game”.

#RogueAgainstTheMachine @FplRogue

Credits: @FplJeb @FplUncorked, @allorinFPL @FantasianPL @RenegadesFpl, @2010davidjsmul and Kirk’s