Captain Kirk

‘With a good captain, a rough ocean turns into a calm lake; with a bad captain, a calm lake turns into a rough ocean!’

One of the great benefits of fiction (or fantasy in some cases) is that it can deliver messages to an audience when their analytical minds have turned off.  Turn off your analytical mind in FPL and reality can become fiction.

On the flip side factuality and real life also inspires fiction, so which fictional Captain would you choose to define your FPL Season to-date? Is it Captain Jack Sparrow, Captain Nemo or Captain James T. Kirk?

For FPL Rogue the “2+1” Strategy outlined in Áróra which resulted in a WC play for #GW8 appeared to have backfired with a lowly 33 pts, probably my lowest GW return in 12 years of playing #FPL.

On reflection I had made a big mistake (or had I?) as a result of budgets available for getting in 2 Premium FWDs AND I also overlooked an obvious bandwagon (or had I?)

Don’t panic I retorted to my inner self in the midst of an ongoing FPL meltdown, it’s the IB, time is on our side, assess, review, regroup and change the plan if needed. The words of James T. Kirk sprang to mind “Hang on tight and survive. Everybody does.”

Our comrades in FPL arms @RenegadesFpl dedicated one of their podcasts to Kirk’s (not James T. but their very own Kirk) currently flying high at 250 OR. I fired off a question for Kirk’s which the trio on the podcast dealt with and Kirk’s answers himself led me to steer my team on a different course. 

Before I divulge how I navigated my FPL ship in the manner of James T. first the regular;

Rearview Mirror

⚽ Your best teacher is your last mistake ⚽

In, Áróra and my haste to introduce Vardy & Aubameyang while also having an existing forward line of Pukki, Barnes and Abraham I ignored to my chagrin the performances of Abraham. I also discounted the obvious bandwagon that was Mount and both players hurt my OR culminating in getting knocked out of #fplNoBackdoor. The latter resulting in the greater malevolence of the two.

⚽ The Watchmen ⚽

I have long left the mainstream podcasts purely to find a differential edge to my game. I dip back into the BIG podcasts now and again so that I am not also driving myself down into an echo-chamber. So along with listening to regular Gonzo podcasts, as I deem them, I also scour for new ideas, new thinking within the FPL Community those unsung heroes (those Watchmen) that can help you steal a GW or 2 march on the chasing pack.

⚽ Bits & Bytes ⚽

At the smallest scale in our computer’s, data is stored as bits and bytes which in the end encodes information. I always find it great within the #FPLCommunity when a fellow player sheds new light and/or a way of displaying the data at our disposal in a concise and clear fashion. Recently I came across a thread on Reddit, thanks to @FPLHokage from u/hoodedjumper and the manner in which average points per appearance were visualised.

The link to this graphic (up to GW9 at the time of writing) for anyone interested in following the updates from u/hoodedjumper on Reddit is as follows.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/dlgag4/average_points_per_appearance_up_to_gw9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x

Strategies

⚽ Enterprise ⚽

Nena in her 80’s in Cold-War era anti-war protest song she refers to the ubiquitous Captain Kirk from the motion pictures of the original series.

“Everyone's a super hero

Everyone's a captain Kirk”

Did you know?

German band Nena, a one-hit wonder released 99 Luftballons from their 1983 album and the inspiration for the song was based on an experience  while at a June 1982 concert by the Rolling Stones in West Berlin.  Nena's guitarist Carlo Karges noticed that balloons were being released. As he watched them move toward the horizon, he noticed them shifting and changing shapes, where they looked like strange spacecraft (referred to in the German lyrics as a "Ufo"). He thought about what might happen if they floated over the Berlin Wall to the Soviet sector.

Kirk’s is not releasing red balloons but he is avoiding red arrows, with 5 green arrows in the last 7 GW's. In his podcast he prompted me to try a different approach so instead of analyzing the GW fixtures to ascertain which games would produce high scores, clean sheets, easy captain picks etc. I switched my focus to which players are in form (irrespective of fixtures) and which players gave me a gut feeling in terms of returns.

So, for GW9 while the writing was on the wall for a difficult game at Bramall Lane for Arsenal, Aubameyang had returned in the majority of GWs so far this season. His profile hints that he revels in tight positions coupled with games where Arsenal have the greater majority of possession. Sheffield United stats showed they give up a lot of possession so the armband went to Aubameyang and if that penalty was given then it would have been the right choice.

For GW10, I followed the same logic. The obvious choice was a City attacking asset but with Sterling scoring freely in midweek in the UCL and KDB subbed off after 67 mins you would not blame anyone for going KBD over Sterling as captain.

I applied the Captain Kirk methodology and went with Sterling.

The FPL Season 19/20 is an odd one to say the least and the Captain picks have been particularly difficult to get right consistently. However, as the margins in OR are tight, I strongly believe that investment in this one key element of your FPL squad will reap rewards. Crack this enigma and you could be joining Kirk’s up at the top of the leaderboard.

So, November’s strategy is based on The Enterprise & James. T with a view to chopping & changing more frequently. The first 8 GW’s were slow & steady now its time to go on the attack.

⚽ Biochips Predictions ⚽

I add a section each month and ask 3 guest FPL players on Twitter to represent Rogue’s 3 Biochips i.e. Gunner, Bagman & Helm to provide their predictions for the following categories:

• Monthly Maestro (Top Scorer over calendar month)
• Cech Mate (Top Keeper)
• Bandwagon (Next Pukki)
• Tom Daly (Biggest flop)

First a recap of the results from our Oct Biochips predictions and each Biochip managed to top 2 of the categories. Thank you to all 3 for contributing @johnsmithspurs , @FPLLens and @or_fail

October
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Normalised)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@or_fail	18 Pts	Oct
Cech Mate	@johnsmithspurs & @or_fail	15 Pts	Oct
Bandwagon	@johnsmithspurs & @FPLLens	598,024 Net Transfers	Oct
Tom Daly	@FPLLens	3 Pts	Oct

Leaderboard
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Normalised)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@FChieftan	19 Pts	Sept
Cech Mate	@johnsmithspurs & @or_fail	15 Pts	Oct
Bandwagon	@FChieftan	1,856,499 Net Transfers	Sept
Tom Daly	@FPLLens	3 Pts	Oct

So, for November (GW11-GW14) we have @Oldirish007, @DhillonAjit and @FPL_RubberDucky with their deliberations.

BioChip	FPL Player	Monthly Maestro	Cech Mate	Bandwagon	Tom Daly
Gunner	@Oldirish007	Auba	Pope	CHO	Mount
Bagman	@DhillonAjit	Sterling	Pope	Martial	Maupay
Helm	@FPL_RubberDucky	Vardy	Pope	Pulisic	Luiz

For the first time we have agreement from all 3 Biochips on the man between the posts for November in Nick Pope “I don’t usually want the keeper with the best fixtures but one with a variety of fixtures and opportunities for save points, clean sheet points, bonus” definitely a different perspective from @Oldirish007 “I would be hopeful of 2 clean sheets and plenty of save points during the month.”

A more statistical outlook on the position by @DhillonAjit “Goals conceded by Burnley are only worse than Liverpool this season. With their next 4 fixtures against Sheffield United, West Ham, Watford and Crystal palace one should expect at least 2 if not 3 clean sheets.”

A Leftfield approach with a dash of Sean Dyche cements it for @FPL_RubberDucky “This was a close call with a few Goalkeepers having the potential of keeping consecutive clean sheets over the next month. I decided that the Sean Dyche factor and home fixtures of West Ham and Crystal Palace.”

“That value, in an interesting Chelsea team showing the potential of goals in every game and at a cheaper price bracket.” Is what persuades @Oldirish007 to pin his prediction for November’s bandwagon on Callum Hudson Odoi. Chelsea under Lampard seem to be making greater strides than United under OGS and this is also apparent as @FPL_RubberDucky singles out Christian Pulisic “I expect people to jump on the American like a trick or treater would attack a bouncy castle after gorging on family size packet of Skittles. The Pensioners fixtures are extremely favourable until an incredible GW23. FPL Managers main concern would be his rotation risk”

@DhillonAjit going against the grain in this category with Antony Martial “Man U have the easiest fixtures in the next 4. As a midfielder playing in the no. 9 spot and favourable fixtures I feel another goal in the upcoming game will definitely make this asset the bandwagon for the next 4 fixtures.”

Last month, @FPLLens was brave to call Aguero for the Tom Daly category so who have the Biochips handpicked this time around and on what merit?

Oddly Chelsea are first up from @Oldirish007 with Mason Mount but let’s hear him out. “As the old template looks to be broken, I see Mount, Cantwell (highly owned players) blanking and as a result of the emergence of CHO” which compounds his choice for the Monthly Maestro.

@DhillonAjit goes out on a limb for a player much talked about at present based on his price. “Brighton have created only 4 big chances this season which is the worst in the league. While Maupay seems to have caught the attention of FPL managers. I do not see him being able to do much post their home game. If he bangs against Norwich which is highly possible, managers will jump on him at his lucrative price of 6 man only to be thoroughly disappointed over the next 3 GW’s.

In fairness to the #FPL Players who have volunteered their thoughts & musings for the Biochip Predictions they very often submit much more than I expected and reluctantly I sometimes have to edit down their submissions. This next piece from @FPL_RubberDucky on David Luiz made me laugh so I decided to leave it all untouched. “The Brazilian has been on the score sheet a couple of times recently and Arsenal’s next four fixtures are promising with matches against Wolves, Southampton and Norwich. However, this is Luiz we are talking about and FPL Managers are more likely to get attacking returns from the central defender than clean sheets. The major caveat is he is now a Gunner and you never know what you are going to get from Arsenal or him. Never has a player and a club been better suited to each other.”

No prizes for guessing which team @FPL_RubberDucky follows!

⚽ Next Update ⚽

Back prior to December games so until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the Community and remember rule no.1 “Play your own game”.

#RogueAgainstTheMachine @FplRogue

Credits: @RenegadesFpl @FPLHokage u/hoodedjumper @johnsmithspurs , @FPLLens @or_fail @Oldirish007, @DhillonAjit and @FPL_RubberDucky