Starman

Starman

‘Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.’

Take what you will from the words of David Robert Jones but delving deeper in to the life & times of a musical visionary reveals predictions associated with technology. We all know David Bowie had many facades from his glam alter ego of Ziggy Stardust to the Thin White Duke but what most missed is the fact that he was a technology trailblazer. I was lucky enough to have an older brother who was an avid Bowie fan so I was immersed in the sounds of “The Man Who Sold The World”, “Station to Station” and of course “Aladdin Sane” emanating from the old 33 RPM’s vinyl’s in our household but never did I once associate him with technology. Some analysts of Bowie even go as far to suggest he could see the future!

So, the ability to see the future in FPL would be fantastic and the closest the FPL Community came to this unbelievable feat was following the tweets from another Rockstar, in @FPL_Rockstar. If you missed his tweets then you really did miss out on a unique insight to FPL early morning games. If you, like me availed of his inspirational tweets then I’m sure you will join me in taking your hat off to this Twitter account for the inside story provided.

So, without a crystal ball for the bumpy Xmas period I am moving my strategy in a different direction but before going into this in greater depth first the regular;

Rearview Mirror

For FPL Rogue and the “The Brazilian Way” Strategy outlined in Jairzinhoet al it resulted in 2 red arrows out of 3 over GW15-17 but for the whole period an overall green arrow. Starting out at an OR of 112,458 and dropping to 115,411 & 193,609 respectively but ultimately climbing back to 99,611. The overall 3-week plan was positive. 

⚽ Juergen I’m Only Dancing ⚽

Won't someone dance with me? For instance, Mané and TAA and preferably in the same GW please. So, Klopp rotation in GW15 (midweek game versus Everton) and Klopp was lucky that Big Dunc was not in charge. Rotation versus Bournemouth in GW16 added to poor returns from my Liverpool assets. Compound this with 2 very poor midfield returns from my City midfield assets resulted in 2 consecutive red arrows and you might say I was Pepklopped.

But this is where having a short-term strategy and sticking to your guns pays dividends. Looking at 2 consecutive red arrows and every man on the street shipping KDB & Sterling I decided to keep the faith in my City assets and this resulted in a 100k green arrow.

⚽ Dream Team versus The Template ⚽

Another critical aspect which compounded my decision to hold firm was the number of Dream Team players in my squad prior to GW16 i.e. 7 in total. I touched on the positives of The Template in the early to mid-season period in the Jairzinho et al earlier this month and realized that I was overlooking the Starman effect on your OR.

I canvassed the community to see if there was a correlation between the number of Dream Team players in your squad (long term) and the implications on your OR. Feedback garnered gave the following results:

4 players = circa. 400k

5 players = circa. 173k

6 players = circa. 185k

7 players = circa. 112k

Admittedly a small sample size but evidence of a better OR based on the number of Dream Team players in your squad over the long term. At the outset of looking into this metric there were only 4 players of the perceived template in GW15 in the GW15 Dream Team. Some notable anomalies to the Template were Pereira, David Silva, Auba and potentially Robertson over TAA.

Naturally there are some exceptions with 2 players showing the following correlation but there were some mitigating factors associated.

6 players = circa. 1.5m

7 players = circa. 1.3m

Dream Team examples over the last 4 GW’s are shown here;

Analysing the data one element that did surprise me was the small delta in total points between Pereira and Sterling in GW14 with the former overtaking the latter in GW15. Considering the price difference, I could not argue against anyone offloading Sterling but as mentioned above I believe in the long play approach and stuck to my guns. It paid off.

⚽ Planet Earth is Blue ⚽

And there is nothing I can do! We all know Planet Earth is green or red with the former bringing adrenalin rushes and definite pick-me-ups where as the latter can alter our moods. I mentioned before that I have been playing FPL for 12 years but before that I played the Fantasy Football game on the Irish Independent (if any Irish readers remember that version). With my two brothers we also built a website, now defunct, to run our own cash mini-league and yes over the years I can testify to bad moods on a Monday morning. We have all been there and yes there IS something we can do.

I have found several ways to neutralize those Monday morning red arrows and here is how I deal with it.

First and foremost, I play a 3- or 4-week game strategy, as regular readers of this blog will be aware of. I therefore review my progress over that period in terms of green or red. Some examples Purple Haze (GW 5-7) Green, Áróra (GW8-10) Green, Captain Kirk (GW11-14) Green, Jairzinhoet al (GW 15-17) Green. Yet in that period I totaled 6 GW Red arrows.

Secondly, if you are hemorrhaging Red arrows on a weekly basis then your strategy is amiss so simply change it up.

Finally, in line with the underlining theme of the 3^rd film of the famous “Trois Couleurs” trilogy i.e. Rouge just remember that you are not alone with potentially millions out there in the same circumstances.

And if all the above fail then just say it in French it sounds better.

Strategies

⚽ Sound & Vision ⚽

In Purple Haze I stated a goal of 100k by Christmas. I am ahead of that, only just but ahead and I want to come out the other side of Christmas in the 75-100k range before starting an assault towards beating my PB of 3198. Whereas I have enjoyed the journey so far and allowed my squad to be built on an element of flair I now need to start looking closer at the finer margins and where the differentiation lies in order to gain ground. 

Bowie’s minimalist approach to Low and the juxtaposing on “Sound & Vision” is the driving factor in my Xmas strategy. Looking to shore up my bench to ensure that I have guaranteed starters but cheap starters while keeping an eye on how I add Salah, Rashford, Baldock, an Everton asset to my current squad. Xmas is a time for reflection for FPL Rogue and perhaps you might say I’m trimming my squad for the greater challenge and hopefully rewards which lie ahead.

Did you know?

David Bowie has been associated with predicting events in the future: Online music streaming, social media, gender fluidity, iPads (check out the official video for Ashes to Ashes and 0.21 seconds in) and believe it or not the birth of Kanye but that one is a bit far-fetched to say the least.

⚽ Biochips Predictions ⚽

I add a section each month and ask 3 guest FPL players on Twitter to represent Rogue’s 3 Biochips i.e. Gunner, Bagman & Helm to provide their predictions for the following categories:

• Monthly Maestro (Top Scorer over calendar month)
• Cech Mate (Top Keeper)
• Bandwagon (Next Pukki)
• Tom Daly (Biggest flop)

First a recap of the results from our early December Biochips predictions & thank you to all 3 for contributing @BlinderFpl, @fplhangover and @FPLLens

December
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Adjusted)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@fplhangover	23 Pts	Dec
Cech Mate	@BlinderFpl @FPLLens	12 Pts	Dec
Bandwagon	@fplhangover	309,215 Net Transfers	Dec
Tom Daly	@BlinderFpl	2 Pts	Dec

Leaderboard
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Normalised)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@FPL_RubberDucky	27 Pts	Nov
Cech Mate	@Oldirish007, @DhillonAjit @FPL_RubberDucky	16 Pts	Nov
Bandwagon	@FChieftan	1,856,499 Net Transfers	Sept
Tom Daly	@BlinderFpl	2 Pts	Dec

So, for the festive December period (GW18-GW20) I decided to pit the 3 close friends and hosts of the excellent Renegades Podcast, Drew, Willy and Kirk’s against each other. Watch out for this mini battle over the festive period, the banter and mudslinging should be entertaining so thanks to @RenegadesFpl, @2010davidjsmul and Kirk’s with their deliberations.

BioChip	FPL Player	Monthly Maestro	Cech Mate	Bandwagon	Tom Daly
Gunner	@RenegadesFpl	Rashford	Guaita	Martial	Pulisic
Bagman	@2010davidjsmul	Son	Guaita	Grealish	Zaha
Helm	Kirk’s	Sterling	Pope	Abraham	Son

Two opting for the City of Manchester and one for London in our Monthly Maestro picks with @RenegadesFpl weighing in with a pick on the young shoulders of Rashford, why? “Hoping the wins over City & Spurs reignites United’s season. He could have had hattricks against both opponents. 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 6”. Additionally, and in line with the research put into by the Renegades crew “With 15 attacking returns he’s only 2 of his best ever season. Underlying stats, fixtures, eye test and on pens he has it all”

Willy aka @2010davidjsmul is clear and concise in his choice for the mercurial Son Heung-min “On fire since Mourinho came in. Offers goal and assist potential.” Back to Manchester with Kirk’s and Sterling his choice due to the fact that it’s “Make or break for city”.

An accord for once between the two stalwarts of polar opinions (on their podcast) for Cech Mate with both @RenegadesFpl & @2010davidjsmul selecting the man of the moment in goalkeeping form i.e Guaita. “I would love to be more imaginative here but no other keeper has the mix of fixtures & form in Guaita. With 26 points and 3 clean sheets in his last 3 coupled with 3 kind fixtures to come.” Did they confer on this? As a similar vein of thoughts from Willy “3 clean sheets in a row. Great fixtures. Palace so poor from attacking perspective so should be good for a bonus to boot”. Kirk’s throws his hands in the air and opts for “Pope” and we all ask why?

The Bandwagon throws up different opinions from the 3 Kildare lads. “Coming off the back of a 10 pt haul vs City another return at home to Everton & I can see the buy buy buy gifs starting. His price is generous, he’s playing up front for United & has 3 lovely fixtures. Whether he’ll do anything/stay fit is another mater but expect to see his ownership rise.” No Drew is not talking up Rashford but rather Tony Martial.

Any listeners to the show will recognize a certain bias from Willy towards the bloke with the small shin pads aka Grealish “If he avoids yellow v Sheff United it could be gold. A talisman in a very attacking team with amazing fixtures Great underlying numbers.”

Kirk’s anticipates a rather different scenario and goes against the current “Tammy based on anticpated South Coast goalfests”

Probably the hardest category, the Tom Daly award, weighs in strongly with a London element. “Pulisic scored his 5 goals for the season between GW 10-12 & has blanked ever since. To my eyes he’s starting to try too hard & things aren’t coming off for him. Frank has plenty of competition & with 2 away London Derby’s to come I can see the barren run continue. PS he’s a fraud.” Drew definitely not mincing his words on this choice.

Willy also goes against the grain considering there is a lot of talk of Zaha of late “Palace offer so little from attacking perspective. Great fixtures but no returns and dire underlying numbers vrs BOU and wat respectively. 1 shot 2 CC 0.13Xgi” Whereas Kirk’s believes hearts will be broken with Son.

⚽ Next Update ⚽

Back in January so until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the Community and remember rule no.1 “Play your own game”.

#RogueAgainstTheMachine @FplRogue

Credits: @FPL_Rockstar@FantasianPL @samuel_dB_021 @arogantni_ @allorinFPL @fpl_gundam @RenegadesFpl, @2010davidjsmul and Kirk’s