Da Vinci

“Learning never exhausts the mind.”

Simultaneously the apprehension and adrenalin are rising as the five of us round the bend of the disused railway tracks and the viaduct comes into sight. “The plan” was about to be set in motion. We worked on “The plan” all morning. Attaching four ropes and a small wooden crate to the large piece of thick plastic sheeting we had uncovered. It was a solid plan. My best mate volunteered to be the test pilot. He always volunteered; he was the pioneer of the group.

As we peered over the central voussoir, the 25 metre drop through the canopy to the woodland floor was the perfect launch site for our homemade parachute. We all imagined how majestic John would look floating with ease down to the open pasture close to the riverbed below.

10……9……8……7……6……5……     ”WAIT”         bellowed my older brother! “Let’s load the crate with John’s weight first and test it prior to a launch with John inside”. Words of wisdom.

The crate hit the floor at MACH speed without even allowing the tarpaulin to deploy to its true form. We all looked at each other in disbelief, shrugged our shoulders and moved on to the next plan.

5 would be “Da Vinci’s” temporarily dejected but the quest would continue.

Once the dust settles on an executed plan and if it didn’t go according to plan then it’s time for change. More importantly in the words of Leonarda Da Vinci learning can never tire us and this is where my journey takes an unexpected approach!

Before I divulge further, first the regular;

Rearview Mirror

For FPL Rogue the “The Scorpion” Strategy outlined in Banksy and the need to fix on a specific keeper strategy for H2 of the current season could never have been more pressing. I choose to select Ryan over Pope in GW’s 22, 23 and 24 and this returned 6 pts with Pope amassing 24 pts on my bench. That 18 pts swing could have resulted in a rise of 25k in OR at the time of writing. So instead of a red arrow over the 3 GW period from 35K to 55K I could have been looking at a green arrow of 35k to 15k.

Having reviewed the goalkeeping aspect of my squad I am convinced that I need to revert back to a “set & forget” strategy. The return of Laporte to the City defence is swaying my thoughts towards Edison again in the hope of replicating my early season keeper returns. However, I have more pressing concerns in my squad, so for now the keeper decisions has been put on ice and Laporte needs more playing time.

⚽ Curse of the DGW ⚽

Having dispensed with my TC chip in the early part of the season, rather abysmally might I add. Well in fairness there were good reasons at the time but in hindsight I should have held on until a DGW. In the past I have struck gold on deploying the TC in single GW’s like on Aguero, Kane and RVP so the gamble is not new to my game it’s just high risk.

Therefore, going into GW24 with no TC I was conscious of the fact that I had to get my captain pick right or I could be in serious trouble from an OR perspective.

⚽ Lady Luck ⚽

This one metric i.e. The Captain Pick led me to over-think the situation and for a rare moment I allowed the FOMO to cloud my judgement and overrule my gut feeling/eye test instinct.

There have been countless debates in the FPL Community that FPL is a game largely dependent on luck and example in case those who choose Mané over Salah were unlucky.

I disagree, there is a certain element of luck but the game is more about footballing knowledge, an eye for a good player and implementing a strategy.

I was looking for the best possible outcome in terms of damage limitation because I did not have a TC so placed my decision on EO (Effective Ownership) and with Mané the greater of the two in terms of EO I choose Mané even though I knew Salah was in better form.  

So, looking at “numbers and data” had a 25k swing on the impact of my OR but that was not deterring me from looking at an angle of the game that I have largely overlooked in the past 13 years.

Strategies

In today’s society the buzz words are Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Neural Networks and incidentally all of these aspects are not just creeping into my professional life but rather they are jumping in leaps and bounds. So, if my domain in Industry is benefitting from AI then why can’t FPL and perhaps, I should start paying attention to this potential aspect of the game. Where better to start than with numbers and statistics.

⚽ Totally Stochastic ⚽

As a 13-year veteran of FPL I have never paid for FPL content and I have never paid much attention to the statistical aspect of the game. I wondered what would transpire if I leveraged both aspects or at least one of those into my game. I set out to look at stats in more detail and coincidentally I noticed a post by @Linn_FPL (Jan 09^th 2020) on this very subject.

There were plenty of suggestions from the community in response to her tweet, Podcasts, accounts and the ubiquitous sites with paid members areas. However, as some accounts are based on their own views and I am not averse to other people’s views but I choose to concentrate solely on accounts that dedicate their time and energy to FPL stats to ascertain if this can add some firepower to my game. I fully understand that looking at the effects of stats over a short timeframe cannot be that conclusive but it’s more a proving ground to see if I can add this to my strategies going forward this season and/or for next season

Bearing in mind that not all readers can pay for FPL content here are the accounts (in no particular order) that I am going to concentrate on for the next 3 GW’s and possibly beyond alongside other sources I have mentioned in previous posts.

@FantasianPL ( https://public.tableau.com/profile/ian.wilson#!/)

Interactive Tableau charts with clear & concise graphics, make sure to check out his “Non-Penalty expected Attacking Returns”. Play around with the toggles and you just might find some interesting results

@FplStatsdan (https://superfpl.com/)

Looking for a differential for one or more positions then check out the Player Stats section, again interactive with the possibility to set a maximum ownership filter.

@FPLSpectrum (Graphs)

Excellent graphical representation of player movement up/down for “average points per player per game”. An example of his graphs can be found in an earlier post Captain Kirk

@fplsalah1 (Bookies Odds)

An account that pulls together the bookie’s odds for clean sheets and anytime scorer. After all the bookies have the resources to work out these stats with assured outcomes in mind.

Did you know?

The viaduct in question is on the old Westport to Achill railway line.

The first and last trains on the Achill line have very unfortunate associations. In 1894 a group of over 30 harvesters from Achill drowned in Clew Bay. Their hooker had capsized while carrying a full load of passengers to the steamship in Westport that would bring them to Scotland. A special train was brought into operation to transport the bodies of the victims home, for burial in Achill's Kildavnet Cemetery, even though the Achill railway extension was still under construction at the time of the accident.

Forty-three years later, in September 1937, another special train was put on to return the bodies of ten young boys to their native Achill. They had been working as harvesters in Kirkintilloch, near Glasgow, and had been burnt to death when their bothy or cabin, into which they had been locked for the night, had caught fire.

Two weeks later, on 30 September 1937, the Achill line closed for both goods and passengers, and the tracks were removed shortly afterwards.

⚽ Biochips Predictions ⚽

I add a section each month and ask 3 guest FPL players on Twitter to represent Rogue’s 3 Biochips i.e. Gunner, Bagman & Helm to provide their predictions for the following categories:

•  Monthly Maestro (Top Scorer over calendar month/specific period)
• Cech Mate (Top Keeper)
• Bandwagon (Next Pukki)
• Tom Daly (Biggest flop)

First a recap of the results from our January Biochips predictions & thank you to all 3 for contributing @FplUncorked, @allorinFPL and @FantasianPL

January
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Adjusted)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@FantasianPL	18 Pts	Jan
Cech Mate	@FantasianPL	13 Pts	Jan
Bandwagon	@FplUncorked , @allorinFPL	419,719 Net Transfers	Jan
Tom Daly	@allorinFPL	9 Pt	Jan

Leaderboard
Prediction	FPL Player	Score (Normalised)	Month
Monthly Maestro	@FPL_RubberDucky	27 Pts	Nov
Cech Mate	@Oldirish007, @DhillonAjit @FPL_RubberDucky	16 Pts	Nov
Bandwagon	@FChieftan	1,856,499 Net Transfers	Sept
Tom Daly	@RenegadesFpl	1 Pt	Xmas

So, for the February period (GW26-GW28) we have representation from @FPLdrunk, @arogantni_ and @FplFrenzy with their own deliberations.

BioChip	FPL Player	Monthly Maestro	Cech Mate	Bandwagon	Tom Daly
Gunner	@FPLdrunk	Salah	Alisson	Ings	Martial
Bagman	@arogantni_	TAA	Dubravka	Traore	Grealish
Helm	@FplFrenzy	Salah	Alisson	Ings	Sterling

Not surprising to see all three opt for players from the runaway leaders s in the PL in our Monthly Maestro picks with @FPLdrunk up first, “Liverpool will continue to rack up wins on the way to their first Premier League title. And those fixtures are very appealing for their attacking options. Sadio Mane is recovering from injury right now and may well be back for GW26 but he may find his minutes managed especially with Champions League fixtures in mind.” Going against the grain and opting for defence is @arogantni_ “Looking at Liverpool’s last 10 game weeks, TAA comes up at top 3 highest scorers in the squad. They have conceded only 6 goals away from home. Other than being the set piece taker and basically playing as a right winger, I’m picking him to be the highest tally for the GW26-28 period.” And similar even eerie pick(s) from @FplFrenzy not just in this category but in 3 out of 4 that are similar to @FPLdrunk “No player can match Salah’s last 9 GWs, which has seen the Egyptian amass 90 points. I expect his superb form to continue, facing the league’s current bottom 3 between GW26 and GW28. Of those, West Ham have the highest xGc in this calendar year, whilst Watford and Norwich both sit in the bottom 6 for that category throughout the 19/20 campaign.”

The Cech Mate category sees @FPLdrunk remain with the league leaders, “This feels a little like cheating but my picks are quite Liverpool-heavy. They have 3 very appealing fixtures between GW26 and GW28 (nor, WHU, wat). While I like Dean Henderson’s fixtures over the next 5 GWs, the fact that Sheffield United do not have a fixture in GW28 means that I have picked Alisson Becker as my Cech Mate. It may also have a little something to do with Alisson’s 9 clean sheets in the last 10 GWs, over which period he averaged 6.9 PPG.” @arogantni_ follows suit ”There are 2 obvious choices when looking at the 26-28 GW span. Henderson and McCarthy. But my pick will have to be...neither! Its Dubravka. Sure, the first game is against Arsenal, but looking at Newcastle as of late, they are more compact defensively and Arsenal seem to have lost the manager bounce, as was evident in their reserved approach against a bleak Burnley side. In GW27 they are facing Palace who have one of the lowest xG in the last 4 weeks. And their GW28 is home game versus Burnley who scored only 12 goals away this season with only west ham, Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich having less, 3 of those 4 are in the relegation zone.” @FplFrenzy “I would love to go for McCarthy here, who faces Burnley, Villa and West Ham in his next 3 and sits behind a team boasting superb defensive stats as of late, but I simply can’t ignore Liverpool’s prowess. The Red Machine have conceded just 1 goal in their last 10 PL games, which has seen Alisson collect 69 points. I expect at least 2 clean sheets out of Norwich, West Ham and Watford.”

Last month we had some consensus on the Bandwagon and again this month 2 from 3 go for Ings @FPLdrunk, who does not mince his words “Danny Ings will continue to pick up owners” @arogantni_ with the FPL favourite at present “Adama Traore. Currently sitting at 5.8m and has been transferred in by over 113,000 following one of those season defining performances against champions elect. He has created 12 big chances this season with 261 crosses, with average of 13 passes per game. His connection with Raul Jimenez, is growing stronger each game. Only caveat is that 49% of his season points thus far has come facing against 3 teams. Considering we are in the final third of the season that is a major concern. However, he is facing Leicester and Spurs in the GW26-28 span. As previously mentioned, 49 of his 100 points came against 3 teams. One of those team? Lads, its Tottenham.” @FplFrenzy is backing The Saints along with many others in the community. “Southampton really deserve praise for their recent performances. They were many’s favourites to go down after their 9-0 thrashing at home to Leicester, but less than 3 months later, the Saints are just 4 points off of European places. A main reason for this is the form of Danny Ings, who has 10 goals in his last 12 league starts. Facing no current team in the top 9 until GW32, I expect Ings to continue performing, and FPL managers to bring him in at the masses.”

Now for the fun pick with Tom Daly which this month does not bode well for three popular picks @FPLdrunk, “Anthony Martial tends to blow hot and cold. But he hasn’t looked very good when I’ve been watching United recently and they have 2 tough away games (CHE & EVE) either side of a game against Watford at Old Trafford. Watford beat United in December and will defend well. I predict disappointment for owners of Martial.” @arogantni_ “Looking at the past few Gameweeks, one midfielder has topped the points. It is an Egyptian? Is it a strawberry blonde? No, its Super Jack! Which is reflected very much so in his 24.1% ownership with additional 80k transfers in following DGW24. However, Villa will be facing Spurs, Saints and Sheffield. A very tough ask, especially with Son returning and looking great for Spurs. Ings will do what Ings does. And Wilder has Sheffield pushing for Europe” @FplFrenzy Raheem Sterling is still the 4th highest points scorer of the season and owned by more than 18% of managers, yet hasn’t returned a single goal or assist since GW19. Out of form and lacking confidence, Sterling faces West Ham at the Etihad, before travelling to Leicester and then has no game in GW28. With a slight injury concern, there’s also a chance that he does not start at home to the Hammers. Between GW26 and 28, he has one definite blank, and I predict 2 more.”

⚽ Next Update ⚽

Back prior to the February GW’s of 30,31 and 32 so until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the Community and remember rule no.1 “Play your own game”.

#RogueAgainstTheMachine @FplRogue

Credits: @Linn_FPL @FantasianPL @FplStatsdan @FPLSpectrum @fplsalah1 @FplUncorked, @allorinFPL @FantasianPL (twice) @FPLdrunk, @arogantni_ and @FplFrenzy