Se7en
“This isn’t going to have a happy ending”
The iconic no.7 shirt at Manchester United conjures up visions of Best, Wilkins, Cantona, Beckham, Ronaldo and Bryan Robson.
My FPL team is in dire need of a Captain Marvel right now as this season’s start has been one of my worst since playing FPL. Wiliam Somerset’s quote above from the 1995 neo-noir psychological crime thriller Seven could be applied to my FPL 20/21 Season if things don’t start turning a corner soon.
Some of my decisions in the opening four weeks can only be termed as the 7 deadly FPL sins: Gluttony (choosing Mané over Salah based on one poor pre-season performance) , Greed (believing the Werner hyper), Sloth (thinking Doherty in Jose’s setup would mimic Nuno’s), Lust (Not taking into account a potential SHU 2nd season syndrome and expecting CS’s galore from Ramsdale), Pride (thinking my bold tactics last year would allow me the same rite of passage this year), Envy (Hopping on the DCL bandwagon and in doing so playing my WC early), Wrath (For believing Jose on Son).
It’s time for adjustments, back to basics and concentrate on the one metric that can shoot you up the table, the Captain Pick.
Last season and in the period GW3-GW34 the top scoring FPL
player scored 117pts more than my own team which if broken down is 3.77pts
per GW. This is effectively a cleansheet, a maximum BPS, or an assist on a
weekly basis, fine margins but over a sustained period it is the equivalent of
an additional Söyüncü, a Cantwell or an Antonio from last
season’s pick in your team.
However, if I compare his returns for his Captains Picks
(592 pts) versus my own returns (461 pts) this is a whopping delta of 131 pts
(an Aguero, an Egan or an Ederson, again going on las
years returns) over the course of the season. The importance of the Captain
Pick is obvious and nothing new but it is an area I really need to change my
thinking on a weekly basis if I wish to improve. In general for FPL but as a
necessity now for the current season.
As mentioned above if I reviewed the leading FPL Player globally
and his opening GW’s period, although my GW1 OR was superior, he played more
aggressively, using his WC in GW2 and was in the top 5k consistently after GW5.
Over the last few years I have always waited until the 1st or 2nd
IB to play my WC. I didn’t this year because I panicked and now I need some
surgery, plastic or ophthalmic is the question?
Reviewing my Captain picks last season, I had a purple
patch from GW14 to GW20 with 7 successful Captain Picks in a row. This run
propelled me into the Top20k from a position of 120k, so something similar
could reap greater OR movement considering my current rank of 4.5M (yikes!!)
If I am honest with myself, I believe Twitter and online weekly polls for Captain choices have swayed my thinking on this one important element. Perhaps based on the FOMO concept more than anything.
I analysed how last season’s highest scoring FPL player
picked his Captains last season, he targeted home games for the traditional Top
6 against BHA, NOR and WAT.
Applying the same logic i.e. targeting promoted and/or out
of form teams the current bottom 4 of FUL, SHU, BUR, WBA then throws up options
for GW6 to GW10 (Note I only ever look at blocks of 4-5 weeks in advance) but
no obvious candidate for GW5 for this core group.
Not rocket science but the lesson learned is to keep to a
strategy and stay the course without getting distracted by social media.
There is one other metric that has caught my eye but I would
prefer to have a greater sample size to draw any conclusions so this idea will
be explored in two weeks’ time. And possibly a chance to test my theory in GW5.
⚽ The Magic
Number ⚽
This season I will be highlighting my preferred 3 Differential
Players (<10% ownership) for a period of 3 GWs and pitting my wits
against a volunteer to see who scores the most points.
For GW 1-3 @or_fail selected Sterling, Firmino
and Digne against my own Rashford, Firmino and Willian.
For GW1-3, @or_fail scored 34pts
For GW1-3, @FplRogue scored 35pts
Next up for the challenge over GW5-7 is @FPLDifferential with
his three picks of Watkins (3.6%), Coady (8.7%) and Maupay (5.6%)
versus my own picks of Richarlison (8.1%), Townsend (3.6%) and my
punt on Aguero ( 1.3%).
⚽ Rogue-grams ⚽
Curva Sud: Part 1. can be found In Repo Man
………….As I near my turn I realise that the Italian Police are
taking no chances and confiscating anything that might be deemed as a dangerous
object. My hand reaches into my jeans pocket and I suddenly realise I had
completely forgotten about something in particular. Oh shit……..
Curva Sud: Part 2.
The burly Italian Police officer pats me down and come
across my Zippo, all the rage at the time and back when I smoked. He instructs
me in Italian, which I don’t understand to dispose of the Zippo into a black
bag been held by his colleague. Think, think, think…….
I tell him in English, which he doesn’t understand that it
is a recent birthday present from my Mum and has particular sentimental value
and under no circumstances am I disposing of this Zippo. After several rounds of this Italian officer
growing impatient and this crazed Irish bloke hanging on to his Zippo for dear
life, a commanding officer approaches to check out all the commotion. He speaks
English, phew.
I tell him my tale of woe and he turns to burly Italian
Officer and blurts out “la mamma, la mamma”.
They waive me on.
I will finally get a chance to see Il Bimbo d’Oro (The
Golden Boy) live.
⚽ An
interesting read ⚽
Blur or Oasis, Messi or Ronaldo, Batman or Superman.
Forget all that, it was Robson or Hoddle back in the eighties
and although the sublime passing of Hoddle was remarkable it was the
combination of courage, tenacity and the will to win that stood out for me when
watching Robson play.
Bryan Robson: How he became Captain Marvel at
Manchester United
⚽ Next Post ⚽
What is and could
have been in the box?
Find out more about “in
the box” in the next post.
So until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the
Community and remember rule no.1 “Play
your own game”.
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