Repo Man

“It happens sometimes, people just explode. Natural causes.”

Best laid plans sometimes go awry and having the worst start to FPL in my 12 year history it was time for some drastic action. In the same vein as Repo Man which came out of leftfield, no big stars, its creators took chances, adopted an unconventional approach which earned it its cult status. I too made a decision to mix it up for various reasons compounded by a gamble that went south in GW1.

I strongly advocated holding your WC until the IB which takes place between GW4 and GW5 with the opening piece in this seasons adventure. I still do if your team and position are in decent shape but my situation now calls for some bold moves.

Despite having Salah in all of my pre-season drafts I mistakenly allowed his performance in the shield to sway my decision to swap him for Mané and you know the rest.

Dismayed by the performance of some sides MUN, SOU etc coupled with Werner, Doherty burning a whole in my budget the inevitable WC adrenalin rush took over any pre-season rational thought.

Keeping my thoughts on a Silo from the Johnny Rep post I revamped my squad and decided to go without LIV, CHE or MUN players (TAA the exception) for the coming weeks.

I will bring back Salah and, in the interlude, it will allow me time to analyse further the importance of Points per Million for the peripheral players in my squad.  Not a new topic and something that has been covered by the well known FF sites in the past but it was a thread from @mccollio09 in pre-season that got me thinking further on this metric.

The highest scoring FPL player last season scored 2575 pts with 592 coming from his Captain picks. Now if we just simply ignore the TC, BB chips and divide his Captain picks haul by 2 this means he achieved 2279 pts in total excluding the double up on his Captain. Now theoretically the lowest priced players on your bench are 4.0 (GK) 4.0 (DEF) 4.5 (MID) and 4.5 (FWD) if deploying a 4-4-2 which leaves £83m for your starting 11. This means you will need to score circa. 27 pts per million for each player in your starting 11.

So taking an example, the highest scoring MID in 19/20 was KDB who initially started at £9.5m so therefore he would need to score theoretically 27 X 9.5 = 257 pts (rounded up) and KDB actually scored 251 pts so he scored a 98% success rate in terms of maximum potential achievement.

Take another example Pope who amassed 170 pts and initially cost £4.5m so his theoretical maximum is 27 x 4.5 = 122 pts (rounded up) so Pope over achieved.

Price changes are part & parcel of the new season adaptions so therefore with KDB priced at £11.5 is he doomed to under achieve in comparison to last season?

Normalising the highest points scorer i.e. KDB with 257pts for the highest value players i.e. £12m this equates to a range of 2.3 to 6.8 for the price ranges of £4.0 to £12.0m.

Applying this rationale in practice if your formation, budget decisions dictate that you are playing with a £5.5m MID then over a 6 week period you should be scoring 6 x 3.1pts or 18.6pts. Deducting the 12pts for appearances then you need greater than 1 assist  and/or 1 BPS per week and/or a CS 1pt per week.

So getting those Lamptey, Anguissa, Kilch et al picks are just as important in the long run as the KDB, Salah’s and TAA’s.

⚽ The Magic Number ⚽

This season I will be highlighting my preferred 3 Differential Players (<10% ownership) for a period of 3 GWs.

For GW 1-3 @or_fail selected Sterling, Firmino and Digne against my own Rashford, Firmino and Willian.

The objective is simply to see who scores the most FPL points in the 3-week period so how are we both doing.

For GW1-2, @or_fail = 24pts

For GW1-2, @FplRogue = 24pts

All 6 players were not over than 10% ownership prior to the start but Willian and Digne have now surpassed that threshold.

⚽ Rogue-grams ⚽

Curva Sud: Part 1.

We cross the Ponte Duca D’Aosta with the Tiber flowing beneath us, dodging the legions of mopeds swarming around the growing number of fans. The epic 82,000 capacity Stadio Olimpico looms in front of us and our excitement grows as we finally get a chance to sample the atmosphere from the explosive Curva Sud.

Our upbeat moods in anticipation of entering this famous ground suddenly turn to one of trepidation due to the massive Italian Police presence as we pass beyond the turnstiles. Mrs Rogue is ushered off to my left where there are female police officers and I am directed into several lines for extensive pat downs and searches.

As I near my turn I realise that the Italian Police are taking no chances and confiscating anything that might be deemed as a dangerous object. My hand reaches into my jeans pocket and I suddenly realise I had completely forgotten about something in particular. Oh shit……..[To Be Continued]

⚽ An interesting read ⚽

A one club man, known as The Golden Boy, The Eight King of Rome, The Big Baby, The Captain and The Gladiator down the years by the Italian media. For football fans he will always be known as a creative forward playmaker and one of the greatest Italian players in their footballing history.

Francesco Totti: The eternal man from the eternal city

https://thesefootballtimes.co/2015/01/15/francesco-totti-the-eternal-man-from-the-eternal-city/

⚽ Next Post ⚽

Like Otto in Repo-Man who became an apprentice to Bud a coke-snorting, veteran repo-man-of-honor prowling the streets of a Los Angeles wasteland populated by hoods, wackos, burnouts, conspiracy theorists, and aliens of every stripe. FPL may seem chaotic at first glance, but it will settle down after a few weeks. Back in 2 weeks so enjoy the ride.

So until then soak up the FPL madness, interact with the Community and remember rule no.1 “Play your own game”.

#RogueAgainstTheMachine @FplRogue