Doors of ...
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”
The Doors of FPL and which
ones we choose can have detrimental or monumental impacts on our season.
Aldous Huxley synonymous
with literature and his self-medication of psychedelics was convinced the
latter would offer him insight rather than the distraction from reality.
Huxley’s final trip is well
documented and nobody will know what transpired with that experiment but we do
know that its afterlife kick started the 1960’s revolution in the heads of some
luminaries. Without Huxley we might never have known the Beat Generation
of Allen Ginsberg, Jack Kerouac, Ken Kaseiy. Or Timothy Leary and the
“turn on, tune in, drop out” movement, Sergeant Pepper, Fear and
Loathing in Las Vegas and of course The Doors.
Ironic that Huxley who had damaged
sight, as a result of an unpleasant illness called keratatis, which left him
blind for several years, instilled so much emphasis on the visual.
So how can we use visuals (mentally in FPL and not narcotics) to boost our confidence in our choices and our relative position in order to remain positive?
As our FPL minds navigate this
idiosyncratic season that is 20/21 do our tried (or tired) and trusted
methodologies need new perspectives? Do we need to open other avenues or FPL
Doors to gain an advantage or do we simply have a problem with the idea of
randomness of this odd season?
Stats have never been a part of
my game plan, I’m not one for dissecting xG, xGA etc and I do not wish
to take anything from those in the FPL Community that do. My constraint has
been more my FPL/Life balance.
Here I try to take a look at FPL
from another angle using statistics or more specifically standard deviation
and how this might boost an ailing season. Mentally speaking.
First the basics of the bell curve, a bell curve is a graph depicting the normal distribution, which has a shape reminiscent of a bell. The top of the curve shows the mean, mode, and median of the data collected. Its standard deviation depicts the bell curve's relative width around the mean. In a way its Heaven & Hell for your FPL OR rank, Hell to the left of the curve and Heaven to the right.
So, at the start of the season
the variance (how far a set of numbers is spread out from their average
or mean value) of the distributed scores in FPL is low (multiple factors
attribute to the low variance). So, if you picture the first 9 GWs of FPL
resemble the tall bell-shaped curve which in turn makes it very difficult or
tremendously easy to increase/decrease your rank depending on which side of the
mean you reside.
As we move through the season the
variance increases (multiple factors attribute to the high variance) and
in turn the curve flattens making it more difficult to gain in OR or inversely
drop drastically if you continue to score consistently but not above the
average weekly score.
Nothing new in the above all well
documented information.
I ask myself; how can I use this perception
of the bell-curve to help boost my rank? In a way I am trying to visualize where
I am in the overall scheme of FPL rather than concentrating on a number (OR)
only.
If you regularly change the
variance starting with your OR and using all the data above you to the Top spot
in FPL then you are visually breaking the whole field down into multiple bell
curves, or rather bell curves within a bell curve within a bell curve. This helps
to explain why you are not climbing if you are grouped within the mean of the
grouped tier around you.
Another confidence booster
is to picture the whole field of FPL Players moving at multiple moving averages
so the World No.1 is moving at a speed of 81 pts per GW, 10k is moving at 69
pts per GW, 100k is moving at 64.5 pts per GW etc (based on GW8 points
distribution).
The first 4 GWs I selected the wrong
Doors (Mane over Salah), risk moves which could have paid massive
dividends but as events transpired sent me tumbling down into Hell on the
curve. If I take the next 4 weeks in isolation then I am moving at the same
velocity as the top 500k. So, this is a confidence booster and helps to
remind yourself that you are on the right track.
Can I do a David Wottle on
it yet? (see video link below)
⚽ The Magic
Number ⚽
This season I will be highlighting my preferred 3 Differential
Players (<10% ownership) for a period of 3 GWs and pitting my wits
against a challenger to see who scores the most points.
To-date its honours even 1 win for Rogue and 1 win for the challenger, next up for GW10-12 is @FPLDifferentia2 with his three picks of Sterling , Rashford , and Maddison.
My own picks are: Aguero , Cancelo , and Watkins (just
sneaking in at 9.6%).
|
Period |
FplRogue |
Challenger |
|
GW 1 - 3 |
35 pts |
34 pts (@or_fail) |
|
GW 5 - 7 |
8 pts |
29 pts (@FPLDifferential) |
|
GW 10 - 12 |
TBC |
TBC (@FPLDifferentia2) |
⚽ Rogue-grams ⚽
Red Mist: Part 1. can be found In Ref-ER-EE
…………. The deadly stares from the rest of the bench could
have swallowed me whole when our Manager signaled to me to warn up. With 25
minutes remaining I stepped onto the pitch and instantly received the ball. I
ran at the Defence, past one opponent, swerved another ferocious tackle, past a
third and I was inside the penalty area. Heart pounding, I quickly glanced to
see where the keeper was positioned and SMASH….
Red Mist: Part 2:
My face hits the turf as Donegal’s version of Norman Hunter
takes me clean out. The pain is worth it as we won a penalty. As I drag myself
up from the crumpled heap that is Norman Hunter & I the continuation pf the
game and the referee moving to keep up with the game travelling up-field towards
our goal .........the Red Mist descends.
Two red cards brandished and I walk to the face the bench
with their mouths gob smacked in disbelief.
I don’t think I lasted more than 2 minutes on the pitch.
The manager suggested I get out of the dreadful weather and
return to the team bus to change. Five minutes later, while contemplating what
could have been, had I delayed my shot too long etc the bus doors open and the
whole team is piling in. Game abandoned due to the conditions.
The referee later approached both managers to suggest he
would not include the red cards in his report so I got the chance to be in the
squad for the replay and the next replay. Three tight and tense games of
football were decided by one goal which sadly was scored by the Donegal side.
The dream semifinal versus Home Farm slipped away.
⚽ An
interesting read video ⚽
David Wottle is an American retired
middle-distance track athlete. He was the gold medalist in the 800
meter run at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich. He
was known for wearing a golf cap while running and have a
look at how he won that gold medal, guarantee you will be surprised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqb1W4qpaTg
⚽ Next Post ⚽
FPL is irregular this season more than any season since I started
playing the game and this year is becoming a hunt to find some regularity. If I
take the words from Huxley mentioned at the outset of this article and choose
not to ignore the facts but rather de-clutter the amount of data available it
might go to improving my season.
I have started to concentrate on two basic stats outlets
which seem to help my season turn a corner and I will elaborate further on
these two data points in the next post.
Do you have your own FPL Doors
examples? What are they and how are you correcting choosing the wrong door?
So until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the
Community and remember rule no.1 “Play
your own game”.
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