Ref-ER-EE
“The trouble with referees is that they know the rules,
but they do not know the game.”
“In the box”, the penalty box
is where the vast majority of football matches are won or lost. Once the
passage of play moves into this distinctive area it raises the adrenaline levels
or increases the palpitations of football fans around the world depending on
which side of the coin you are on.
One man (and now one technology) can decide the fate of a game, your levels of joy or despair, the ref.
Pielugi Collina bears a certain resemblance to one of the characters in Se7en.
One of the great football Managers
of all time, Shankly, said he
would not argue with referees. He realised after taking the advice of his
brothers that it is a waste of time. The referee, he wrote, always wins in the
end. Advice I should have taken when the “red mist” descended in a FAI
U18 Quarter Final, outlined in this week’s Rogue-grams.
Trying to comprehend the madness
of this season’s FPL has been discussed on many levels and even the mainstream
media of the likes of The Guardian and Sky Sports have released
articles on the subject of the impact of no fans on the opening weeks of the
current season.
The average of 3.58 goals per
game (prior to GW6) is the highest in England's top flight since 1960/61
and this is impacting our planned FPL squad selections.
The two media outlets mentioned
above explain the average goals per game across the top 5 leagues in Europe and
what is causing the goal fests (VAR, high defensive lines, limited or no fans
etc). The latter aspect results in teams dropping their guard to the inherent
danger that the opposition poses. The knock on effect is caution is thrown to
the wind hence more mistakes due to the removal of the fan pressure inside the
stadiums.
One aspect that appears to be
afforded little or no thought to this debate is the positive and negative
effects the lack of crowd pressure is playing on the man in the charge of the
match, the referee. Are certain referees under less pressure and
scrutiny from the baying crowds and in return allowing the game to flow more
freely hence producing more goals?
Inversely, due to the absence of
the crowd are certain referees lavishing the increased power and stamping their
influence on the games? Increased penalty decisions although VAR comes
into play here. The build up play outside of the penalty and the way in which
the referee interprets the play is this a factor? Shankly’s quote at the
top is very apt in this current changing environment due to the global
pandemic, are the referees who know the rules applying them more
stringently instead of allowing a game of football to be played?
Referee metrics are they in play, with this
in mind I decided to take a look at the Men in Black and see if anything
stands out for the first 6 weeks. The graph below shows total goals scored per
game (orange column) goals per game (translucent blue column)
versus the number of games (green column) that each referee was in
charge.
The vertical axis for the goals
per game and number of games is on the right-hand side.
To-date the Premier League have
used a total 18 different referees and of those who have been the
referee in 4+ games then Jonathan Moss & Chris Kavanagh have officiated where
the least number of goals and least number of goals per game were produced from
the top 7 referees with the most appearances.
Simon Hooper has the
highest goals per game ratio but only officiated in 1 game to-date. Similarly, Peter
Bankes has the 3rd highest goals per game ratio but only took
part in 2 games so far.
The standout referee in terms of
total goals scored and 2nd highest goals per game ration is Michael
Oliver. Equally Lee Mason has a high goals per game ratio but has
only been in charge of 3 games.
I am not suggesting that this is
a go-to metric that you should be taking into account but if you are torn
between Salah, Kane or KDB
on any given GW then perhaps a review of who is officiating the game
might give you that added advantage over your ML rival or H2H opponent.
Realistically a larger sample
size is required and a drill down on some of the data for additional parameters
e.g. how many games with the traditional top 6 has contributed to Michael
Oliver’s results. How have the 7-2, 6-1 and other strange results skewed
the data. To be continued during the season.
⚽ The Magic
Number ⚽
This season I will be highlighting my preferred 3 Differential Players (<10% ownership) for a period of 3 GWs and pitting my wits against a volunteer to see who scores the most points.
As mentioned in Se7en for GW5-7 @FPLDifferential with his three picks of
Watkins (4 pts) , Coady (8 pts) , and Maupay (4 pts) has amassed a total of 16 pts versus my
own picks of Richarlison (-1 pt), Townsend (4 pts)
and my punt on Aguero (3 pts) bringing a total of 6 pts.
So with a red card and a muscle injury it looks like my
hopes are down to Andros Townsend scoring a hat-trick to win the duel in hand.
⚽ Rogue-grams ⚽
Red Mist: Part 1:
The incessant Donegal rain was now starting to flow like a
small river down the back of my shirt with no protection provided from the aged
club tracksuit. The glamour tie that the whole town were talking about was no
so glamourous as I stood on the side line watching the tit for tat tackles
flying in.
The only console and something I kept reminding myself of was
the fact that I was the only member of the U16 team to make the U18 squad for
this tie, much to the chagrin of the parents of the U18 & U17 players.
Having travelled all the way to Donegal as the away side in
the FAI U18 Cup and with no dug out or stand for protection against the harsh
Donegal weather, the effects appeared to be taking hold of both sides due to the
severity of the tackles. The number of yellow cards issued by the referee who
was slowly starting to lose all patience with these two teams was beginning to
surface. Something had to give sooner or later.
The deadly stares from the rest of the bench could have
swallowed me whole when our Manager signaled to me to warn up. With 25 minutes
remaining I stepped onto the pitch and instantly received the ball. I ran at
their defense, past one opponent, swerved another ferocious tackle, past a third
and I was inside the penalty area. Heart pounding, I quickly glanced to see
where the keeper was positioned and SMASH…. [To Be Continued]
⚽ An
interesting read ⚽
Scoring records: The Day Questionable Refereeing
decisions led to a 149-0 scoreline
⚽ Next Post ⚽
I started with a quote from Shankly so it’s only fitting to
end with one and if any of my FPL squad happen to read this and get into the
penalty area then please take onboard his advice: “If you are in the penalty area and aren’t
sure what to do with the ball, stick it in the net and we’ll discuss your
options afterwards.”
How can I learn from the greats to "right my FPL ship" which is floundering this season?
So until then enjoy the FPL madness, interact with the Community
and remember rule no.1 “Play your own
game”.
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