Subterfuge

“Surrealism is destructive but it destroys only what it considers to be shackles limiting our vision.”

From my vantage point, just behind the Mont des Alouettes, I look out over the plains of the Vendée and my mind drifts to the pending start of this season’s FPL. The evening sun still radiating some heat, which attenuates the positive spirits, as I sip on a glass of Ventoux and sample some local appetizers. 

My pre-season thoughts centre around conquering my FPL Achilles heel i.e. the slow start. Battling back from the brink of 20/21 FPL obscurity to a final position of 13,620 was hard work, a real slog and one I do not wish to repeat.

This season I am determined to get out of the blocks early and in doing so I decided to take a different perspective to my perennial initial team structure selection bias.

Thoughts abound primarily to Bruno or BrunNO?, BB in GW1 or hold steady?, a new stratagem is required to outwit my perpetual tribulations of the opening weeks.

Adopting a subterfuge to escape the inevitable pre-season over-thinking and traps that leave you scrambling for a get-out-of-jail scenario when the red arrows start to accumulate in the early GWs is priority no.1.

We all have the escape route option at the touch of a button however deploying the WC prior to at least GW 6 is a waste of your pre-season planning IMO.

My team planning therefore focused on the following metrics: (Reword this sentence and intro to metrics under consideration)

The Captain Pick is an essential in that respect yet other considerations I delved into while choosing my squad were;

• Statistics
• Fixtures GW 1-6
• Club investments
• To punt or not to punt
• A “playing ITB”
• Early chips
• Squad Selection

⚽ Captain Picks ⚽

Easily the most valuable metric in FPL and one that where I invested most time last season. This sole metric will play a large part on your season’s success or failure so the investment is worth it. Some FPL players believe it is relatively straightforward, i.e. pick a premium player possibly one that is on penalties and place the armband on them week in, week out. To a large extent I cannot disagree however at certain times in the season you will have between 2 and 4 premium players with easy fixtures on paper yet the “beautiful game” can throw up some surprises or worse Pep springs some surprises.

I developed a methodology which I refer to “Conditional Probability” which combines “anytime scorer” odds coupled with fivethirtyeight.com percentage wins from their algorithms.

This year I plan to add a third parameter to the equation. That parameter in question is player form.  This component will only come to light after a few GW’s are played out hence not a factor that will influence my GW1 team selection.

⚽ Statistics ⚽

As regular readers will know, having played FPL for 13 seasons now, I was one never to place a large emphasis on stats and never signed up to one of the subscription-based FF sites. This year I decided to see what all the hype was about and signed up to Fantasy football Hub, chosen over Scout merely due to the fact that I know people associated with FFH.

I intend to pay more attention to their predictions and player comparison tools.

⚽ Fixtures GW 1 through 6 ⚽

The vast majority of people like to create their own FDR spreadsheet and I have followed that mantra in the past. This year I am going to base my FDR analysis on that offered by FFH.

So in terms of attacking teams this means my thoughts will take MUN, EVE, BHA, WAT, NEW & WHU into consideration.

Inversely I will look to build a defence from the following, BHA, LIV, AVL, EVE, WAT, MUN

A slight adjustment I will throw in to the mix is paying particular attention to the teams with home fixtures as the return of the fans will play a big part in the opening weeks and hence AVL, EVE, LIV, MCI and MUN should be combined with the above.

⚽ Club Investments ⚽

A tried and trusted strategy for some FPL Managers is to target the weaker elements of the 3 promoted clubs BRE, WAT, NOR. I added another angle to this tactic by looking at the market value of the PL clubs in early June and compared this to their valuations in early August.

Market valuations can be influenced by a multitude of factors e.g. new infrastructure, new sponsorship deals, squad value or signature signings. Investment in the latter two could give an indication of the strength and direction that club are taking in the PL.

Comparing the data presented the following findings:

Top 5 increases in market value were MUN, LEI, AST, BRE, WAT

Bottom 5 decreases in market value were LIV, MCI, SOU, BHA, ARS

The inclusion of LIV, MCI and ARS in the bottom 5 is no doubt down to the lack of transfer activity at the time of writing (August 02^nd) and this no doubt will change by the end of August.

What is interesting is the ambition shown by BRE and WAT and inversely the lack of ambition by SOU and BHA.

BUR and NEW came in at 6 and 7^th respectively in the clubs whose market value decreased.

⚽ To Punt or not to Punt ⚽

Need I mention Werner or Brewster anyone? My limit this year will be maximum one unknown punt to the premiership. I will patiently wait for the bandwagons to form before jumping onboard.

⚽ A “playing ITB” ⚽

A paradox in itself and its always advisable to have a minimum of 0.5m ITB for GW1 in order to allow you to react to price changes in the first few GW’s. I have decided this year to invest my ITB funds in a playing premium keeper with good opening fixtures hence I am starting with Martinez. This will allow me to drop down to a cheaper keeper after the AVL good run dries up and in return potentially upgrade Watkins to Ings if needed for example.

⚽ Early Chips ⚽

A strategy I toyed with is using my BB in GW1 to grab a few more points with a view to getting above the distribution curve median. Rolling down the far slope of the curve is a lot more fun than battling the upward slop to get over the median distribution of 8-9m players.

Th BB in GW1 would mean no Bruno and that is not a gamble I am prepared to take at this point in time.

⚽ Squad Selection ⚽

Putting all of the above together I arrived at this point. Somewhat template by Twitter definitions, although if the template brings points then is it not goal achieved and risks abated in the opening weeks.

The only position that could change is the 4.0m defender or if injuries occur in the next week.

AND assuming Messi chooses the City of Lights as his next destination.

⚽ Strategem GW 1 -6 ⚽

Considering some of the topics outlined above then betting against MCI and CHE players might be deemed a risk although I have my reasons. For MCI, ideally, I would like to have some cover in defence based on the absence of attacking players in my opening squad. Investments in DEF/GK and MID will allow me to move the pieces of the jigsaw around to bring in MCI players once Pep’s ideas take shape.

I plan to hold strong in GW2 and make my first transfer only in GW3 once the lie of the land is known. Potentially taking a hit once GW3 is completed to take advantage of the inevitable price rises/falls during the IB break prior to GW4.

Or will that all go out the window in GW2!!!!

⚽ Next Post ⚽

A change in direction for RATM this season, I’m taking a back seat on the content creation side for various reasons. So, will be posting intermittently throughout the season.

Keep enjoying the FPL madness, interact with the Community and remember rule no.1 “Play your own game” and see you on the TL’s.